Something Old, Something New

From the desk of George Adair on Mon, 2006-01-02 10:17

If you hang around long enough, the wayback machine coughs up this one from the Financial Times, circa 13 January 1982:

SECTION I; Pg. 14
HEADLINE: Study of sanctions’ impact on pipeline
BYLINE: By David Tonge in London

WESTERN officials are to meet in Washington later this week to discuss the precise implications of U.S. sanctions against the Soviet Union on the construction of the 5,500km Siberia-West Europe gas pipeline.

West Europeans believe the U.S. will not use the recent developments in Poland [in December 1981 the Communist regime in Poland declared a state of war and outlawed Solidarity, whereupon the West introduced economic sanctions against Poland and the Soviet Union] to prevent the pipeline going ahead, according to diplomats who attended Monday’s meeting of Nato Foreign Ministers in Brussels. Herr Helmut Schmidt, the West German Chancellor, apparently ended his recent visit to Washington convinced of this.

The Reagan Administration has long argued that the pipeline will make West Europe dangerously dependent on the Soviet Union. EEC countries say it would be “very wrong” for the U.S. to use the present situation to destroy the pipeline.

Lord Carrington, British Foreign Secretary, has compared the importance of the pipeline to Europeans with the effect on U.S. farmers of banning grain sales to the Soviet Union.

General Electric and Caterpillar have been the major U.S. corporate casualties of the sanctions, but yesterday there were some indications that the U.S. position on sanctions may be less absolute than initially indicated.

Western countries are still confused about the precise effects the sanctions will have on some U.S. concerns and what action by non-U.S. companies would be considered to undermine the American sanctions.

In Scotland, John Brown Engineering is known to be able to complete six of the 21 gas turbines ordered by the Soviet Union despite the halting of supply of rotors, blades and nozzles from General Electric.

Western countries hope to be able to announce a composite package of sanctions against Poland and the Soviet Union within a month. Officials will meet next week in Brussels to discuss the package.

Today Russia supplies 25% of Western Europe’s gas, with both Germany and France heavily dependent on it.

More on this topic:

KGB Tightens Screws on Ukraine, 1 January 2006

Russia Returns to Dictatorship, 28 December 2005

Prominent Estonians Call for Move Against German-Russian Gas Pact, 28 December 2005

Berlin-Moscow Gas Pact Easy to Thwart... if Balts Have Guts, 21 December 2005

Schröder Exchanges Berlin for Kremlin, 14 December 2005

In follow-up with the

Submitted by Brigands on Mon, 2006-01-02 12:18.

In follow-up with the Ukraine situation.
Did Russia threaten (overtly or not) to cutt off Gas supplies to France & Germany if they joined the US in an Iraqi invasion? Depends in what way the French & Germans can diversify their supply sources on short notice.
Would form a problem for Russia as Western Europe pays good money for it.
Would the trick that Russia seems to be playing out against the Ukraine have an equal powerplay-effect against Germany or France ?

Diversification?

Submitted by Philip Vanheessen on Mon, 2006-01-02 13:23.

As European gas consumption constantly grows and while at the same time gas reserves throughout Western Europe are in decline (except in Norway), the only alternative nearby to guarantee long term security of gas supply is Russia. This will be so for all Western European countries. It's a reality we'll have to deal with. The only means of diversification is through alternative sources of energy, which are of course limited for the time being - unless we are prepared to reconsider nuclear energy...

Nuclear & Hydrogen, solar,

Submitted by Brigands on Mon, 2006-01-02 17:12.

Nuclear & Hydrogen, solar, wind & waterturbines should form a good alternative, I presume.
Indeed Europe's dependancy on Russian gas will grow, something that needs to be countered by something else...so far unkown.