Did Gadhafi Reach The End Of The Line?
From the desk of Johnny Fincioen on Mon, 2011-03-21 00:13
Reluctantly, Obama adds limited American military actions to the allied effort to stop Moamer Gadhafi from taking back his entire country. Up to a few days ago, people like Robert Gates, the US Secretary of Defense, doubted the efficiency of a no-fly zone to defeat Gadhafi. But now, surprisingly, this same no-fly zone is seen as the appropriate strategy.
I have serious doubts about the power of our European and Arab ‘partners’ to do more than postpone Gadhafi’s victory. Word is, he controls Libya again with the exception of the city of Benghazi. It is very possible that before next week is over, the entire country lives again under his brutal control. In the US, people ask: ‘was it too late and too little”, or “better late than never?”
Some, like Sarah Palin as one of the first (February 23), said shortly after the eruption of the revolt, when the rebel forces controlled Libya with the exception of the capital Tripoli, that the USA must immediately enforce a no-fly zone against Gadhafi. A forceful international reaction under the leadership of the USA, using US rockets to destroy Libyan airbases and US warplanes to destroy the Libyan air force, might well have been enough to hasten Gadhafi’s exit. Now it is probably too late, since Gadhafi’s tanks and ground forces may well be more than enough to destroy the remaining rebel forces, and to expel them to Egypt.
Obama had good and bad reasons to abstain from an intervention. First the bad reasons:
- He abhors to be accused of copying Bush’s policies. Bush, who chased and destroyed an Arab tyrant to bring freedom and democracy to Iraq. The entire Democratic base of Obama was and still is against the use of military force to spread freedom and democracy.
- Obama shuns responsibility. That was already obvious when as a Senator he voted ‘present’ instead of ‘yes’ or ‘no’ on most of the issues, or when he simply stayed away from the Senate to avoid a vote. He has no leadership qualities. He runs away from his responsibility as head of the Executive Power, and as head of the Democratic Party to propose initiatives and ideas to seriously cut the US deficit during the ongoing budget talks. For a month Obama showed no willingness to do something about Gadhafi. Eventually Hillary Clinton put her neck out and forced Obama to act, but, if things go wrong, she will be blamed. Obama makes it very clear that he agrees only with minimal actions.
Now the good reasons.
- We don’t know who the rebels are. History teaches us: the most radical wing hijacks all revolutions. In the Muslim countries, the radicals are also the best organized. They are the devout Muslims, organized around radical Mosques, aiming to install Sharia law with the zeal to expel/murder the infidels.
- What will we do with, for example, Bahrain, Yemen and Saudi Arabia, when the local protests become full-fledged revolts? Will we arm and support the rebels in these countries too? Although we know already they are of the radical Muslim breed.
So here you have four reasons why Americans, left or right on the political spectrum, are very skeptical about the latest military adventure in the Middle East.
The hottest political potato in American politics today is the ongoing discussion, reaching a boiling point in three weeks, about the huge budget deficits on the Federal level, and also in many individual States. The divide is extremely deep, putting on the one hand those believing higher taxes and still more debt is acceptable, against those who believe the government must live within its means and cut its spending drastically if the US wants to survive long term.
PS: My wife and I travelled for five weeks in Northern India. It was a fascinating trek I want to tell you about on a later date.
disgusting, but about par for the course...
Submitted by mpresley on Sat, 2011-04-02 23:10.
When it comes to the flow of capital, and the ability to charge an interest for its use, those in lending mode are not particular about those to whom they loan, and morality is the last item on the agenda, if it is ever there at all. I suspect that if central bank ledgers were made transparent, pure evil would be exposed to the light of day.
@Mpresley
Submitted by Capodistrias on Sat, 2011-04-02 17:25.
Strange indeed, almost Kappertian. See the Wpost Spy Wizard David Ignatius new incarnation as regime liquidator.http://kappertisle.tumblr.com/
"Various Assertions"?
Submitted by Capodistrias on Sat, 2011-03-26 18:04.
@Luc
Isn't "various assertions" a little open ended a characterization of Traveller's acknowledged failure to keep up on this one issue as a point of contention?
As far as 'obscure sources' I recommend the wikileak cables from Tripoli over the last several years, I have read thru most of them, somewhat ironic that the main author of those cables, Chris Stevens the former #2 American official at the American embassy in Tripoli describes an on the ground reality in Libya remarkably similiar to what the GOL, Government of Libya does now, Stevens is now the US liaison to the rebels. The US government and the French and British gov'ts worked hard to work WITH the Gaddafi regime over the last several years, the mixed signals and perfidy of those relations reflect much worse on the Western interventionist powers today than the GOL.
I understand that you do not wish to get engaged in this thread so I will not get into a lengthy debate here over this issue, but I'm always at your disposal via email.
Self-loathing and confused
Submitted by marcfrans on Fri, 2011-03-25 22:21.
@ Antibureaucratic
1) It is "culturAL", not culturED, self-loathing, that I accused you of. There is a difference but, obviously, you have not thought about it.
2) No, I do not apply that term to anyone who disagrees with me. I only apply it to those who deserve it. And I only employ the term when there is supporting evidence for it. In your case I have clearly given two illustrative examples of your cultural self-loathing. It is not my fault if you refuse to look at the evidence presented.
3) Besides the 4 reasons of Fincioen, I presented two additional arguments against intervention in Libya. So, the core of my comment was opposition to Obama's action in Libya. Given that context, it is totally unclear what you are trying to say in the rest of your reaction.
Alone?
Submitted by marcfrans on Thu, 2011-03-24 20:15.
@ Capo
That's an excellent link to Mr Kern's article whose reasoning seems very plausable.
The answer to your question depends on the location.
- In Europe and America Kappert definitely would not stand alone, postmodernism (in education and media) being what it is.
- Elsewhere in the world Kappert would pretty much stand alone for, over there, they do not tolerate such postmodernistic foolishness.
Euro Pacificists Stick to Their Guns
Submitted by Capodistrias on Thu, 2011-03-24 15:29.
http://pajamasmedia.com/blog/why-are-pacifist-europeans-declaring-war-on-libya/?singlepage=true
Will Kappert stand alone?
Consequently war crimes
Submitted by kappert on Wed, 2011-03-23 12:16.
Since Saturday, the high-tech-huns destroy Libya's infrastructure. Yesterday they bombed Tripolis harbour (you know, essential for the no-fly-zone). The UN mandate receives successive extensions. As usual in humanitarian air raids, civilians suffer most. Consequently there are no limits for the “international society's” aggression. It is not without irony that the F-UK-US leadership resembles a motley crew of bandits. The little French jester, famous for his good ties to Arab leaders, including Gadhafi, becomes tragicomically. The French will harvest the same fate as the Germans as, after provoking the post-Yugoslav massacres, an US intervention was needed to win the war for the West. The UN mandate states „excluding a foreign occupation force of any form on any part of Libyan territory“ - well, we never heard the US troops in Iraq calling themselves 'occupying forces', so a ground intervention is not at all impossible.
A No Gun Salute to Kappert
Submitted by Capodistrias on Wed, 2011-03-23 00:54.
http://kappertisle.tumblr.com/
Things we don't hear about
Submitted by kappert on Tue, 2011-03-22 17:43.
As a pacifist I have a very negative opinion to any military action. But it is rather incomprehensible that a sovereign state like Bahrain calls outside military forces into the land to smash a rather small demonstration. Despite the protests, the Al Khalifa family does not look like it will be dethroned, all that with the tacit understanding of the US (Robert Gates, the US defence secretary, met with Bahrain's king Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa shortly before the GCC military stepped into Bahrain, pointing to possible US complicity and foreknowledge of the Gulf intervention).The demonstrations were peaceful and not driven by Sunni-Shia sectarianism, which was just a pretext for the regime to justify its control. Bahraini and Saudi forces attack the protesters (killing two and injuring many more) and burning their tents. Three other protesters were killed in the serious clashes in the Sitra Island area and elsewhere. And the Salmaniyya hospital complex was being surrounded by security troops, preventing ambulances from entering or leaving. Clearly the authorities have decided that force, not negotiation, will be their preferred strategy.
Meanwhile, in Egypt (remember the 'revolution'), the army returns to beat and torture at the antiquities museum (which in an indication of the reality of Egypt's situation, is still being used by security forces as a detention facility one month after the removal of Mubarak). Ban Ki-moon stepped by shortly, saying nothing.
In Yemen, another revolutionary hotspot, President Ali Abdullah Saleh pledges "constitutional transfer of power" and warns of "bloody war" if protesters reject offer.
At the same time, in Libya, the F-UK-US forces bomb anything what moves and is considered belonging to the Ghadafi military. Does this respect the UN-Resolution?
@ kappert - Resolution 1973 / 2011
Submitted by mdavid1 on Sat, 2011-03-26 14:08.
kappert, I am not a jurist so I could be wrong - also my English did not improve over past years.
Apparently what the coalition does in Lybya is legal as per Resolution 1973.
"Resolution 1973 (2011)
[...]
Protection of civilians
4. Authorizes Member States that have notified the Secretary-General,
acting nationally or through regional organizations or arrangements, and acting in
cooperation with the Secretary-General, to take all necessary measures,
notwithstanding paragraph 9 of resolution 1970 (2011), to protect civilians and
civilian populated areas under threat of attack [...] , while excluding a foreign occupation force of any form on any part of Libyan territory
[...]"
The No-Fly zone comes - within the text of this resolution - below the paragraphs 4-5 quoted by me above.
Useful links:
UN SEcurity Council Resolutions 2011
http://www.un.org/Docs/sc/unsc_resolutions11.htm
Resolution 1973 (2011)
http://daccess-dds-ny.un.org/doc/UNDOC/GEN/N11/268/39/PDF/N1126839.pdf?OpenElement
So UN authorized not only a No-Fly zone, but more than that.
Good luck with your mental evolution
mdavid
@ mdavid
Submitted by traveller on Sat, 2011-03-26 14:32.
You just put the finger where it hurts most:
Authorizes member states "THAT HAVE NOTIFIED"..
There is a serious problem with that rule:
NO MEMBER STATES NOTIFIED SO FAR AS ANYBODY KNOWS...
innercitypress, a specialized UN blog cannot get an answer about those notifications...
@ traveller - about my first post
Submitted by mdavid1 on Sat, 2011-03-26 17:34.
I was only answering kappert's question if military actions - besides those connected with ( is it corect ?) No-Fly zone - are legal. As per resolution 1973, it appears all the other military actions were also legal. Even more, Qatar and UAE did not withdraw from the alliance. Not even after A.Moussa said the W. went outside Res.1973 scope.(apparently he was not right). He also did not ask the W to stop the other opperations.
To be honest, I simply overlooked the issue you mentioned.
But kappert is right; I simply don't understand where all of these will lead the situation there.
@ mdavid1
Submitted by traveller on Sat, 2011-03-26 19:42.
I will not start a new discussion here, but you can find a very well documented article here:
http://japanfocus.org/-Peter_Dale-Scott/3504
It's as complete as you can get today. None of the US, French or British mass media has such complete articles.
@ mdavid1
Submitted by traveller on Sat, 2011-03-26 23:53.
Mark Steyn says it with much more humor, but exactly the same thing.
http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/263110/art-inconclusive-war-mark-steyn
It gets stranger all the time...
Submitted by mpresley on Fri, 2011-04-01 11:31.
Maybe this is April first, but I wonder who the fools are? Courtesty of our good friends at the Federal Reserve:
______________________________________________________
"April 1 (Bloomberg) -- Arab Banking Corp., the lender part- owned by the Central Bank of Libya, used a New York branch to get 73 loans from the U.S. Federal Reserve in the 18 months after Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. collapsed.
The bank, then 29 percent-owned by the Libyan state, had aggregate borrowings in that period of $35 billion -- while the largest single loan amount outstanding was $1.2 billion in July 2009, according to Fed data released yesterday. In October 2008, when lending to financial institutions by the central bank’s so- called discount window peaked at $111 billion, Arab Banking took repeated loans totaling more than $2 billion.
“It is incomprehensible to me that while creditworthy small businesses in Vermont and throughout the country could not receive affordable loans, the Federal Reserve was providing tens of billions of dollars in credit to a bank that is substantially owned by the Central Bank of Libya,” Senator Bernard Sanders of Vermont, an independent who caucuses with Democrats, wrote in a letter to Fed and U.S. officials."
@traveller
Submitted by mdavid1 on Sun, 2011-03-27 18:17.
Thank you for the links. Just an opinion: Ghadaffi creat a security apparatus because that's the nature of revolutionary regimes and because he had "natural" "connections" with the EE regimes.
But I agree: today Lybya appears to be a political mess. And WE&US don't know how to solve these kind of situations. Look at what was achieved in the Balkan area after so many years. Just improvisations in places where people want stability and peace above else. And where from instability one gets more violence - and more improv.
@traveller
Submitted by Luc Van Braekel on Sat, 2011-03-26 15:45.
http://www.un.org/News/briefings/docs/2011/db110321.doc.htm
This will be my first and last comment in this thread, as you are obviously blind to facts that can be easily verified by anyone (see the above citation which dates from last Monday, it took me less than a minute to look it up), but on the contrary you cling to various assertions by obscure sources, representing them as "the truth".
@ Luc Van Braekel
Submitted by traveller on Sat, 2011-03-26 16:53.
Sorry, my mistake, I should have checked again.
I read this before:
http://www.innercitypress.com/ossg1libya031911.html
and the 24th March this was added:
http://www.innercitypress.com/unsys6libya032411.html
Cameron: "A Camel! A Camel!
Submitted by Capodistrias on Tue, 2011-03-22 14:37.
My Kingdom for a Camel!"
As an American I don't know what is more embarassing Hillary Clinton leading our nation into a war or to be allied with such a effeminate and twisted little creature like Cameron, and his French boyfriend.
Here's an excerpt from an article mentioning the dust up between British General Richards and the political hacks in Whitehall "commanding" the war. Particularly funny is how the Italians charcterize the command structure of Cameron and Sarkozy's Libyan Fiasco as anarchic. When the Italians can call the conduct of a military adventure 'anarchic' you know you're in trouble.
"Italian officials have described the current three-way command structure involving France, Britain and the United States and the resulting bombing campaign as 'anarchic'.
However, it was General Richards who caused consternation in Whitehall when he appeared before TV cameras yesterday to insist Gaddafi was not a target.
‘Absolutely not,’ he said. ‘It is not allowed under the UN resolution and it is not something I want to discuss any further.’
Downing Street and Foreign Office officials were quick to dispute that – saying assassinating Gaddafi would be legal because it would preserve civilian lives in Libya.
Foreign Secretary William Hague had refused to rule out targeting Gaddafi, echoing comments made by Defence Secretary Liam Fox on Sunday.
The Government also came under fire from U.S. Defence Secretary Robert Gates, who described the calls for Gaddafi’s killing ‘unwise’.
He warned that it could undermine the cohesion of the international coalition supporting the no-fly zone.
‘If we start adding additional objectives then I think we create a problem in that respect,’ he said. ‘I also think it is unwise to set as specific goals things that you may or may not be able to achieve.’
One senior government source said: ‘There has not been some major falling out, but General Richards did say the wrong thing.
‘He is right that regime change would be illegal, but there are obviously circumstances where it would be legal to target Gaddafi if his actions are harming civilians.
‘It would be so if, for example, we were taking out a compound because we knew he was inside and directing a campaign against his people.’
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1368633/Libya-War-words-erupts-Army-chief-says-legal-right-kill-Gaddafi.html#ixzz1HKkQMWmB
No Congressional Approval or Public Debate
Submitted by Capodistrias on Mon, 2011-03-21 19:35.
Or as we all here in the South say, the Clinton Way.
Marcfrans, you identify the most infuriating and disgusting aspect of this intervention from the point of view of probably a large number of Americans. And then for the Commander-in-Chief to go off to holiday in Rio!!!
@ Capo,
Submitted by traveller on Tue, 2011-03-22 13:23.
I wouldn't complain too much about his holidays, why not sending him on permanent holiday???
More reasons for abstention
Submitted by marcfrans on Tue, 2011-03-22 15:30.
Fincioen gives 4 sensible reasons why Obama should have abstained from the Libya intervention. There is a 5th and more important reason: the absence of support from the American public and the Congress for this action. When Bush decided on removing Saddam Hussein from power in 2003, he had obtained prior authorization from Congress and opinion polls showed support in excess of 80% (which, of course, could not last). By contrast, today Obama doesn't even bother with Congress and opinion polls show 65% against.
A 6th reason for abstaining from this presumed 'humanitarian' intervention should be that ingratitude (for this American effort and sacrifice) from the Arabs and from 'the World' is guaranteed.
The sad truth is that Obama thinks that America's actions should not be governed by America's democratic institutions and polity, but rather by the venal geopolitical calculations that go on in the United Nations and its Security Council. The even sadder truth is that both Obama and HClinton can give any credence to statements from the duplicitous Arab League and can have any belief in the 'determination' of the so-called European 'allies'. Wait till Gadhafi stages his first show of bomb victims in a Tripoli hospital.....
@ Kapitein Andre
You raise many good points. However, the fear for "a new round" of international terrorism is superfluous. That terrorism never went away and will continue irrespective of Ghadafi's fate.
@ Antibureaucratic
Your cultivated (cultural) self-loathing is as palpable as your concern for bomb victims is selective. You clearly are more concerned about..."innocent Libyanis killed by your (US)bombs"....than about Libyans killed by any other bombs (be they from France, Britain or Ghadafi 'loyalists'/mercenaries or whoever) or Libyans tortured-to-death by 'Ghadafi's wrath' . After all, you only deign to mention the former and not the latter two groups of 'victims'. And what makes you so sure that these bomb victims were/are so "innocent"? Moreover, your parroting of the ridiculous claim that the US government sent men and woman into Irak to search for "fortune" - even put in brackets - is truly pathetic! Clearly, you are not capable of making sensible observations in the world around you, and are allowing cultivated BDR (Bush Derangement Syndrome) to interfere with your judgments on Libya today.
re: my Self Loathing @ Marcfrans
Submitted by antibureaucratic on Fri, 2011-03-25 08:54.
methinks ye doth assumeth too much... Is "cultured/cultivated self-loathing" a term you bandy around to anyone you suspect of disagreeing with you? I do not understand the insult.
The intervention is limited to a remote control attack from the air. I confess I have not been able to verify the following point, however I have been told that the US demanded no ground intervention from other neighbouring states such as Tunisia and Egypt.. to quote a friend:
"The information I have is that the USA asked Tunisia and Egypt to no send voluneers to help the Libyans. I believe that if the Egyption & Tunisian people had been allowed to make a major contrinution, the Gadaffi could have been defeated. This is just my personal view"What I can confirm is that the UN action (soon, I believe, to be taken over by NATO) only proceeded on the understanding that all existing oil contracts would be honoured. Hence my skepticism about any higher, moral, reasons for the intervention. And why, praytell, do YOU think the US were so keen to intervene in Iraq? (that's Irag v2, not Desert Storm)Fortunately the current turmoil in the Middle East is not a terrorist plot, as Al Qaida et al have been suspiciously silent. I do not believe the current intervention is anything other than a show of force, and the interests of the Libyan people are the last thing on the minds of those intervening. Please convince me otherwise. As to the myriad reasons why the US should NOT intervene at all, from an American point of view, well we all know the Americans only intervene either when it suits them strategically or when they are forced to, WWII being a case in point.
re: my Self Loathing @ Marcfrans
Submitted by antibureaucratic on Fri, 2011-03-25 08:53.
methinks ye doth assumeth too much... Is "cultured/cultivated self-loathing" a term you bandy around to anyone you suspect of disagreeing with you? I do not understand the insult.
The intervention is limited to a remote control attack from the air. I confess I have not been able to verify the following point, however I have been told that the US demanded no ground intervention from other neighbouring states such as Tunisia and Egypt.. to quote a friend:
"The information I have is that the USA asked Tunisia and Egypt to no send voluneers to help the Libyans. I believe that if the Egyption & Tunisian people had been allowed to make a major contrinution, the Gadaffi could have been defeated. This is just my personal view"What I can confirm is that the UN action (soon, I believe, to be taken over by NATO) only proceeded on the understanding that all existing oil contracts would be honoured. Hence my skepticism about any higher, moral, reasons for the intervention. And why, praytell, do YOU think the US were so keen to intervene in Iraq? (that's Irag v2, not Desert Storm)Fortunately the current turmoil in the Middle East is not a terrorist plot, as Al Qaida et al have been suspiciously silent. I do not believe the current intervention is anything other than a show of force, and the interests of the Libyan people are the last thing on the minds of those intervening. Please convince me otherwise. As to the myriad reasons why the US should NOT intervene at all, from an American point of view, well we all know the Americans only intervene either when it suits them strategically or when they are forced to, WWII being a case in point.
re: Pashley - wars are won on the ground
Submitted by antibureaucratic on Mon, 2011-03-21 09:21.
I saw a quote today in the AU newspapers. where USA is saying that they will not, REPEAT not, use any ground forces in order to protect the Libyan people, and that they want to stress that this is an international action and not their idea. Thanks USA, on behalf of all innocent Libyanis killed by your bombs. So you are prepared to send your men and women in to countries like Iraq in search of imaginary WMD (and fortune) but not in this case... And now Moammar is playing the "Crusader" card - but the Libyan people are smart enough to see that this is no Christian Pogrom, I think!
RE: End of the Line
Submitted by Kapitein Andre on Mon, 2011-03-21 08:12.
1. You will note that Resolution 1973 allows provides not only for the enforcement of a no-fly zone, but also air strikes on government or loyalist forces that are attacking civilians or civilian targets such as Benghazi, Tobruk, etc. Given that the first act of foreign intervention was the destruction of 4 loyalist tanks by French aircraft, and that the loyalist offensive is relying almost entirely upon ground forces, this authorization for air strikes is much more important than grounding the Libyan Air Force
2. Whether Gadhafi remains in power or conquers Benghazi is an issue for the tribes to decide. The rebellion in Libya has thus far claimed relatively few, and engagements between rebel and loyalist forces have been little more than skirmishes involving several dozen combatants on each side
3. Rebel forces never controlled Western Libya, and rebel forces melted away from Ras Lanuf and Brega in the face of the loyalist counter-offensive as quickly as the Libyan Army and paramilitaries had ceded control, when Sirte was a front-line city
4. This march to folly has been orchestrated by the UK, France and Italy, because of their vital interests in Libya: opening Libya up to British business; ensuring that refugees from sub-Saharan Africa cannot cross through Libya to Europe; and securing access to Libyan oil and gas, respectively
5. The US has more interest in ensuring stability in Bahrain, preventing a Shia uprising in Saudi Arabia and parrying Iranian intrigues in either, than in removing Gadhafi or assisting the rebels in Benghazi
6. Libya has no civil society as such to succeed the current regime. Nor do I think that the proponents of the no-fly zone and ceasfire enforcement understand how Libya is governed or how much power Gadhafi really holds
7. Obama clearly believes that if he goes no farther than Bill Clinton did in Bosnia, Kosovo, Iraq and Sudan, he will differentiate himself from Bush. Unfortunately, both Clinton and Bush (George W.) believed in humanitarian intervention
8. Recently, the White House reported that it does not believe that loyalist forces have ceased fire, despite Tripoli announcing 2 cease-fires. I wonder if this new “Coalition of the Willing”, will allow loyalist forces to attack purely military targets of the rebel forces? Also, shouldn’t the coalition be destroying rebel military assets as well? So far, I sense a half-baked regime change going on here, and if Gadhafi does not resign, we will see a new round of international terrorism
regardin Kapitein Andre's pt 6 and 7
Submitted by antibureaucratic on Mon, 2011-03-21 09:29.
6: so just because they have no political structure/pre-fabricated bureacracy to succeed Moammer's regime, they are not legitimate and deserve no protection?
7: George W had to make up for his father's mistake, i.e. abandoning the Iraq people when he promised assistance, and then leaving them all to be slaughtered after he called them to arms while awaiting this promised assistance. Don't kid yourself he did it on humanitarian grounds.
Wars are won on the ground
Submitted by pashley on Mon, 2011-03-21 01:13.
and now Qadaffi loyalists have the ground back.
For the West, the ideal situation for the use of force is like in Afganistan, when the West kicked out the Communist-allied government, using indigenous troops and Western firepower. However, in Libya, there is no equivalent to the Afganistan militias. Rebel forces may become an effective ground army in, at best, months, which is probably wildly optomistic.
So the West operates a no fly area, and throw missles at the government. But in Clausewitzian terms, victory is in killing Qadaffi or forcing him to leave, attrition is not a strategy. The West musters up their UN resolutions and press releases to hurl at Qadaffi like modern-day harpies, and to the same effect.
Meanwhile ministers and businessmen whisper hints of deals to be done with the Libyan government and all their oil money, day after day. The Arab "allies" will desert into neutrality at the first opportunity. It will be like a bar tab as closing hour approaches, the last one standing will be caught holding the tab.