The EU, Russia and Georgia – A Lesson from the Tangerine Crisis
From the desk of Matthew Omolesky on Mon, 2007-02-19 09:23
In 1863, at the height of Tsarist Russian imperial expansion, the French polemicist Alfred Mercier wrote in Du Panlatinisme that “Russian domination, a benefit for ignorant and savage peoples, or ones corrupted by the vices of decrepit civilizations, would be a calamity for Europe.” Mercier would not object to Russia’s incursions into Central Asia, and was confident that “as long as Europe remains what it is today, that is, strong and disciplined, the czars’ cannons will knock at its doors in vain.” Europe, Mercier reasoned, would be preserved by its “vitality.”
Presently, Europe’s vitality is being questioned by many, on geopolitical, economic, social, and demographic grounds. At the same time, Vladimir Putin’s Russia, despite facing similar challenges, is geopolitically resurgent. NATO expansion, the UN’s plans in Kosovo, and US plans to expand missile defense in Poland and the Czech Republic have all drawn the Kremlin’s ire, and at the recent Munich Conference on Security Policy, Putin spoke troublingly of unspecified “asymmetrical” responses. Although some European leaders responded appropriately to such veiled threats (for instance the Swedish and Czech foreign ministers and NATO Secretary Jaap de Hoop Scheffer), the comment most indicative of Europe’s current predicament vis-à-vis Russia came from a Green MEP from Germany, Angelika Beer. “We need Russia for energy and Kosovo. He [Putin] knows that – but perhaps he is going over the top.” Even that statement would seem too strident for many Russophile European policymakers.
This candid willingness to acknowledge dependence on Russia, specifically energy dependence, is discomfiting. After all, recent news out of the Republic of Georgia indicates that Russia ’s foreign policy aims can indeed be deflected effectively. Late last year, in response to tensions between Moscow and Tbilisi, Putin recalled his ambassador to Georgia, closed border crossings between Russia and its Caucasus neighbor, and banned importation of three of Georgia’s biggest exports – wine, mineral water, and tangerines – on spurious health grounds.
Instead of buckling under Russian pressure, tiny Georgia, led by Rose Revolution leader President Mikheil Saakashvili, managed to hold firm. Georgia diversified its natural gas imports, expanded its trade relations with nearby states, began to set up an innovative free trade zone on the Black Sea, and exploited Russia’s client de facto states (e.g. Abkhazia and South Ossetia) to facilitate black market exports of Georgian tangerines, considered a delicacy in Russia. Russia, realizing that the blockade was hopeless, has ratcheted down its sanctions and returned its ambassador.
The lesson of the so-called “Tangerine Crisis” is that even a diminutive republic in the Caucasus can stand up to Russian pressure, provided it exhibits the sort of vitality Alfred Mercier spoke of in 1863. Surely the European Union, and its constituent states and their representatives, need not preface responses to veiled Russian threats with assurances of dependence. But, repeatedly, Russophile elements within Europe have done precisely this. Perhaps European policymakers would be surprised by how many of the threats they face would be mitigated or eliminated by acting in a manner consistent with the strength, discipline, and vitality that Mercier proposed and that Georgia, for example, has lately exhibited.
@misunderstanding russia
Submitted by martin_lukes on Tue, 2007-02-20 21:10.
Your recent drivel concerning russia has resoundingly served to confirm my opinion of your mental state.
Your political bias is noted.
Your total miss-reading of the international situation, if voiced by a normal person, would be called "slap-stick" or hilarious, but coming from a sub-normal person, such as you, in such a pompous, self righteous manner, over such a long time scale, has another name.
Your opinions are an object of scorn and derision.
You convince no-one
Make your way to the nearest brain transplant unit, and pray they can find yours.
Misunderstanding Russia
Submitted by Kapitein Andre on Tue, 2007-02-20 08:18.
Neither Western Europe nor the United States have fully transcended the Cold War, and despite diplomatic success and Russian progress, there lingers and clear and present cultural bias towards Russia, which was prior to 1993, an implacable and monolithic enemy of the West. Today, Russia is a shadow of her former self:
Russia remains as it has always been: defensive, determined to be a regional power if not a global power, and suspicious of its assumed rivals. However, as the Asia Times points out (http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Central_Asia/IB17Ag02.html), Russia has been adept at being a peace broker in the Middle East, in spite of its record in Chechnia and Afghanistan, is progressing with socio-political reform, and is becoming an economic powerhouse due to its wealth in natural resources. If a trade war were to occur between the European Union and Moscow, the former has a variety of other avenues to secure energy, and indeed has made the most progress in weaning itself off of fossil fuels. While China and India would replace the European market, Russia has always leaned towards European culture and has desired an honored place amongst the states of that continent; neither Beijing nor New Delhi can offer Russia anything other than alternative markets. Instead of courting Turkiye, Brussels should concentrate on bringing Russia, Belarus and the Ukraine into the European Union and into its military agreements so that NATO expansion is seen in Moscow as inclusive rather than exclusive and threatening.
@Martin Lukes
Submitted by Kapitein Andre on Tue, 2007-02-20 07:53.
Once again, aside from the usual trolling and spamming that are grounds for banning in most blogs, it is clear that you have a proclivity for men's asses, faeces and carpets. Given this fact, and using the psychoanalytic approach, I am forced to conclude that you are a homosexual and with an anal fixation. I suggest you piss off and make tracks for the nearest sex-change hospital.
Kapitein Once again you have
Submitted by martin_lukes on Tue, 2007-02-20 00:08.
Kapitein
Once again you have your head up your ass.
Would you mind removing it before speaking.
We've turned the fan off, but we're worried about the carpet.
Standing up to Russia but not to Turkey
Submitted by Armor on Mon, 2007-02-19 23:08.
What is it exactly we have to fear from Russia?
I followed the link to the EUobserver article, and here is what Carl Bildt said:
"We have to have a dialogue with Russia but we must be hard-nosed and realistic. We must stand up for our values," he added, in the context of Europe's faltering attempt to negotiate a new energy and security treaty with Russia."
We must stand up for our values? Strange advice from a man who supports the replacement of Swedes with third-world immigrants and wants Turkey in the EU, against the wish of most Europeans.
Dependence on Russia: Western Europe vs Georgia
Submitted by JimMtnViewCaUSA on Mon, 2007-02-19 17:57.
Clearly KAndre is correct, Georgia is more directly threatened and more at risk.
But it seems rash to dismiss the danger to Western Europe of the resurgent Russia. The fault lines are obvious: citizens who expect to be taken care of, Muslims who wish to change the cultural direction, economic weakness, natural resource weakness, and the list goes on. Doesn't former PM Schroeder work as a flunky for Russia? If they make a serious and sustained effort to exert influence on Berlin and Paris, it is hard to see where resistance would come from.
In Response
Submitted by Kapitein Andre on Mon, 2007-02-19 17:09.
Firstly, Georgia's so-called "diversification" was transferring its trade dependence from Russia to Azerbaijan, as it now relies on the latter's oil and gas production and in the future on Western machinations to build a Transcaucuses pipeline to Western Europe, bypassing Russia altogether.
Secondly, Russia does not pose nearly the same geopolitical threat to Western Europe as it does to Georgia.
Thirdly, Russia is only resurgent in terms of challenging American economic interests in Central Asia, and of being a major supplier of oil and gas to Western Europe. Short of partnering with China, which would be a geopolitical mistake, Russia and its people rely upon trade with Western Europe.